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Sepat indeed moved as main forecastts predicted; now over se China, and tropical storm.
Maybe interesting to see this plot of estimated max sustained winds.
Shows fast strengthening, as above; then some moderating (still v strong!!) as “eyewall replacement” – with double eye for some time.
Winds picked up again; and then tailed off – surely as Sepat hit Taiwan then mainland China.
Just read of it leading to tornado over se China, 11 people dead (toll to rise as more info comes in?) [img width=580]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/sepatwindspeeds.GIF[/img]Typhoon Sepat now rated (on CIMSS site) as Category 5 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale – strongest level there is. Few Cat 5 storms have even hit US, say: even Andrew was borderline 4 or 5, Katrina Cat 3 as it hit New Orleans, tho its main damage was thro floods rather than winds.
Still seems bound for s Taiwan, then on to se China, but wouldn’t need much of a turn to west to blast us w some powerful winds and rain (tho direct hit still looks improbable).
Wind speeds of storms can fluctuate: Katrina reached Category 5 over the sea.
Seems to me, though, that these monster storms retain energy, even if max sustained winds drop; energy spreading into more general winds, and rainfall.If this were bound for the US, would see it in news – maybe even as headline story, and as it approached shore, lines of vehicles heading away from coast.
But hey, it’s a typhoon and in Asia, so not such a big deal…
(As I recall, a few years ago the SCM Post carried front page story w satellite photo re hurricane bound for US; at the time, a storm named York was moving towards us. The hurricane caused little trouble; York became only typhoon to directly hit HK in recent years. [somewhere around Category 1 – way short of Sepat]) [img width=420]https://www.hkoutdoors.com/components/com_joomlaboard/uploaded/images/sepatwinds16aug07.GIF[/img]Just come across this on CIMSS site, showing how wind speed of Sepat has v quickly increased (and kept increasing; tho could fall away again somewhat); get fall in chart as winds build.
Now to over 200 km/hr.Only shortly before Barking Deer’s post, I saw Nov/Dec 2006 Action Asia, with article on climbing mountains in Taiwan. Mentioned that island had pushed itself as industrial place.
So, notions of it being Formosa – the beautiful island – almost lost to history, or known to too few people.
Hong Kong likewise has much to offer in outdoors, albeit not so spectacular as Taiwan. Yet here too – as I’ve often argued, inc on this site – an image problem: selling HK as “world city” (Meaning? Can anyone explain?) is not likely to encourage visitors who like to hike, watch wildlife, kayak and so on. But, a tough image to shake off; even showing HK is many-splendoured not at all easy.
Heck, I’ve even seen Hong Kong referred to as “the island” as if Kowloon and the New Territories didn’t exist. Worse still, once had a letter addressed to “Hong Kong, Japan”. (It came from … …. the US)One difference between Taiwan and Hong Kong, I think: in Taiwan, maybe local people mostly familiar with the island’s scenery, and even wildlife. In Hong Kong, even after SARS (which sent people out of the malls and into open places), still perhaps too few local people really know this place.
Hi Moonmoon:
Welcome to HK Outdoors; tho a rather sad first post – hope that it was accidentally trampled.
Hope, too, you have better sightings/reports in future!Martin
Just done page on the site re Pabuk, inc some photos and video clips from Cheung Chau, ferry from CC to Hong Kong Island:
Pabuk the come back kidThe photo mentioned above.
– added as Pabuk just maybe dissipating at last; winds in last hour or two markedly less blustery here on Cheung Chau.
Had to take a ferry to town – from Cheung Chau – this aft; then found myself stranded on HK Island as ferries halted during Number 8.
On HK Island, maybe seemed the No 8 was much ado about nothing, but as I walked to 2.15 ferry, real strong wind w rain; and an “exciting” ferry ride, with large waves, ferry rolling around – even tho took route well to north of normal, passing near Peng Chau.
Plan to post a few photos and video clips. But first, here’s a photo as left Cheung Chau harbour after 2.30 (after ferry struggled to even leave the pier – was first blown against it). Gives a little idea of wind and rain at the time.
Strong winds blowing here on Cheung Chau – nearing gale force I believe (HK Obs recording to 75km/hr).
Yet, as some on Weather Underground noting, HK Observatory still only has Number One signal (warns of trop cyclone somewhere around) in effect; seems odd not to have Number Three, which warns of strong winds imminent or blowing.
Radar image shows Pabuk, and rain bands, very close to us; HK Obs now forecasting it will pass over HK (tho it’s currently just rated as tropical depression).Pabuk didn’t simply fade over land; instead, stayed over sea, halted, and now trundling back roughly towards us, maybe less than 100km away.
No 1 signal back up.Radar animation here (live) – looks like intense rain at/near centre, which edges towards south of HK:
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/radars/radar.htm?pv_mode=playbackSeems no forecast really got Pabuk right; now perhaps just tropical storm/trop depression, moving towards west Guangdong.
Roughly following it is trop storm/depression Wutip – maybe to cross Taiwan strait, then move around northwest over mainland China.
So, doesn’t seem we’re set for dramatic weather, but rainy and rather blustery days ahead.Heavy rain w thunder, lots of lightning, as an outer rain band arrived before 7pm (turned off my computer, lest get lightning spike hit electricity etc)
Here, from HK Obs site, showing the lightning recorded.
Pabuk now slower; may be late aft tomorrow before it’s closest to HK (as severe trop storm?)
Wind picking up, thunder rumbling, on Cheung Chau just now
even so, over at Weather Underground, the weather experts figuring Pabuk small and maybe set to weaken, as chased by larger storm, Wutip.
As I write, more rumbles w thunderstorm over Lantau, and rain starting.
Horribly hazy now; surely in fair part as northerlies ahead of Pabuk wafting s China pollution over us.
Hope the new environmental chief does another press conference, saying HK pollution problems suddenly far worse (after days of southerlies, wind from clean air over s China Sea, announced HK air pollution getting better! Oh dear)
Seems that soon, will be affected by rainbands, and severe trop storm/typhoon will pass right over HK tonight. HK Obs forecast here; Pabuk position at 11am shown at right, X marks the spot for storm at 11pm
Well, ECMWF not so hot w the two storms: the one that formed in Hainan area didn’t become powerful; and now Pabuk (severe trop storm [HK Obs] or typhoon [Joint Typhoon Warning Center]) heading pretty much our way rather than looking set to head north after passing Taiwan.
HK Obs says: “Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk will move west in the next couple of days across the Taiwan Strait in the general direction of Guangdong. “
While ECMWF still has it set to move north, as odd looking system, HK Obs agrees with Joint Typhoon Warning Center that to keep moving west, and hit coast just to east of us.
JTWC forecast here.
