Stormy autumn 2007 to come?

[DocMartin]

Just done page on the site re Pabuk, inc some photos and video clips from Cheung Chau, ferry from CC to Hong Kong Island:
Pabuk the come back kid

[DocMartin]

Well, been quite a while since Pabuk – and with lull in tropical storms in this region, seemed my notion that may have stormy autumn was to prove completely wrong.

Yet now, storms forming again – and Typhoon Wipha headed towarsd Shanghai, as looks possible there could be tropical storm for S China Sea next week.

La Nina is evidently developing: waters cooler than normal in eastern Pacific, warmer than normal in western Pacific.
WIth such conditions, tend to have tropical storms form west of normal, so more chance for hitting coasts from Vietnam to e China:
An INTERVIEW with Professor Johnny Chan

Here’s page where you can see maps showing recent sea surface temperatures in Pacific, and deviations from the norm.
Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation

Tropical storms need sea surface temps of over around 26.5C; west Pacific waters currently to over 30C in places, so plenty warm enough to form storms.
Other factors invmportant too, like wind shear, which can destroy storms. Now, seems some convection in west Pacific: about right for creating storms.
Waters should cool as and when winter monsoons really start blowing; but they’ve been weaker of late, not so chill, so wonder if may form storms later than normal.

[DocMartin]

Out and about on Cheung Chau earlier today, and a very windy day.
Partly northeast monsoon, but also severe tropical storm Lekima around southsouthwest of us, trundling towards Hainan.

Looking at HK observatory info for various weather stations, can see that winds generally strengthened this morning. At Cheung Chau, sometimes averaging (over 10 mins) more than 60 km/h – so just reaching gale force. At Ngong Ping, sometimes over hurricane force (average of 118 km/h), with peak for 10-min average reaching 140 km/h around 6am.

Over at Weather Underground forum, some discussion re this: why just Strong Monsoon Signal issued, when winds well within range for T3 signal, and in places reaching gales, ie Number 8? Notions there that nowadays, the Obs doesn’t like issuing typhoon/trop storm wind signals; also wondering if people might be too relaxed re weather with only a monsoon signal in place.
Well, let’s see – will it turn out that numbers of people have been out doing stuff they wouldn’t have done had T3 been issued, then had some problems? Also, if Lekima comes closer – and especially if get rain bands with squalls coming nearer – can see if Obs switches to T3.

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