Average number of typhoons forecast for 2010

[DocMartin Williams]

After seeing news re unusually active Atlantic hurricane season being forecast, just checked about forecast for Wast Pacific tropical storms n typhoons, from Hong Kong's City University:

Quote:

For the number of tropical storms and typhoons, most of the predictors consistently forecast a below-normal activity (ranging from 24 to 26) and therefore a below-normal TC activity (24 tropical storms and typhoons) is expected for this category

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A slightly difference between non-ENSO and ENSO predictors is found for the number of typhoons.  The ENSO predictors (NINO3.4 index and equatorial SOI index) suggest a near-normal TC activity (predicted numbers being 17 and 18 respectively) while the other predictors forecast a below-normal to near-normal TC activity, with predicted numbers ranging from 14 to 17.  Therefore, the final forecast is 16 typhoons, which is near the normal number.

Thus, it is expected that the overall TC activity as well as the number of tropical storms and typhoons are likely to be below-normal while the number of typhoons is likely to be near-normal.

2010 Predictions of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

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